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Dubai Property Market Update: reports of a slowdown in demand for off-plan properties in Fall 2023 were premature

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Following Bloomberg, numerous analysts observed a decline in activity in Dubai’s off-plan residential market in Fall 2023, which some experts attributed to a drop in demand from Russian HNWIs (high net worth individuals).

However, the Dubai Land Department (DLD) revised the data in the public registry of transactions for September—October 2023, which had a significant impact on the overall figures.

Consequently, Tranio analysts updated their report, taking into account the latest DLD registry data. In October 2023, 7,141 off-plan property transactions were recorded, an increase of 45% compared to the same term in 2022 (4,918 transactions). However, the volume was 20% lower compared to September 2023, which, according to the updated data, was the year’s peak in terms of transactions.

graph 1

The DLD public registry typically records transaction data with a delay of about one week. However, it took longer this fall to upload transactions for Dubai’s off-plan market. When press coverage of the drop in demand in the Dubai market emerged three weeks ago, the public registry had not yet published all new property transactions for September—October 2023.

We saw a spike in secondary market transactions in early October, which is generally not typical. Finally, last week the data has been revised and more off-plan transaction details have become available: the picture is now in line with the general annual trend.

Mikhail Bulanov Mikhail Bulanov Managing Partner & Co-Founder Tranio

In October 2023, the total value of off-plan transactions reached 5.5 billion US dollars, up 62% year-on-year and a 5% decrease compared to the previous month.

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The average off-plan property price per square metre in Dubai is correcting from its peak, reaching $5,221 in October 2023. Last October, the price per square metre was 6.5% higher.

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