Lessons Learned: Dubai Development Delays Halved in 2024

According to an analysis by Tranio, based on data from the Dubai Land Department, developers in Dubai have made significant strides in reducing construction delays. The median delay has decreased from 7 months in 2022 and 4 months in 2023, to just 2 months in 2024.

This improvement is largely attributed to a reduction in the scale of development projects. Contrary to the prevailing perception, the number of mega-projects in Dubai is on the decline, while the average size of projects is shrinking, and the apartments themselves are becoming more compact. This shift reflects evolving consumer demand and aligns with the Emirate’s broader urban development strategy through to 2040.

The End of Mega Developments: A Shift Towards Quality Over Quantity

Since 2020, the median size of projects in Dubai has steadily decreased, with developments slated for completion in 2024 being the smallest in the past five years. In 2019, the average project size was 41,022 square metres; by 2024, this figure has fallen by 47.2%, to 21,651 square metres. At the same time, project density has increased: where a typical project in 2014 might have contained 145 units, by 2024 this number has risen to 272 units.

As the scale of projects has shrunk, so too has the retail demand for larger properties. According to ValuStrat, the average apartment sold in 2024 measured 95.4 square metres, while villas averaged 294.9 square metres. By comparison, in 2023, buyers were opting for larger layouts, with apartments averaging 98.4 square metres and villas 343.6 square metres.

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To mitigate the risk of delays, developers are increasingly opting to break projects into smaller phases, enabling them to respond more flexibly to fluctuations in demand and better manage construction timelines. This phased approach allows for the adjustment of schedules, with less active stages deferred when necessary.

Historically, the size of a project has been directly correlated with delays. Over two decades of observation, a clear trend has emerged: larger residential developments are more likely to experience significant delays, with some even facing complete project halts.

Has Dubai’s Development Learned Its Lessons

The answer to this question is not entirely clear. On one hand, 2024 has seen the average delay for all new developments in the Emirate (both under construction and completed) reach its lowest point in recent history, matching the 2021 figure of 2.6 months. For projects delivered late, the average delay was 3.8 months — a slight improvement compared to 4 months in 2023.

On the other hand, 2025 could potentially disrupt this positive trend, with an expected increase in the volume of planned housing delivery that may throw off the current balance and hinder progress. However, a closer examination reveals that this rise in expected delivery volumes largely stems from a difficult year for developer DAMAC in 2024.

2025 is shaping up to be a particularly challenging year for DAMAC, responsible for around 30% of all planned units and more than half of the square footage of residential developments. In 2024, the developer experienced an unprecedented number of delays — out of eight planned projects, only two were completed on schedule, with the remaining 75% set to be delivered late, in 2025.

When excluding DAMAC’s projects, 2025 will see the lowest housing delivery volumes in the last five years, with only 20,511 residential units scheduled for completion, compared to 22,280 in 2021. Despite the broader perception of a booming development sector, the trend of declining supply remains in place.

The recent reduction in construction pressures presents a significant opportunity for developers to focus on optimising processes and enhancing quality. With the current rate of delivery, developers are better positioned to streamline operations. This reduction in strain on contractors should help alleviate the risk of supply chain bottlenecks and workforce shortages, both of which have contributed to delays in previous years.

In 2024, the pace of new apartment completions relative to the active stock reached its lowest level in recent history, with only 3.78% of the total supply accumulated since 2005 being delivered to market. The previous low was recorded in 2016, when 7.29% of the accumulated stock was completed. Today, this figure stands at just 2.93% of all apartments in the secondary market.

This slowdown is a clear indicator of the market’s self-regulation and a return to balance after the period of intense demand. Over the past five years, deliveries have averaged 12.48% of the accumulated stock, with 23% of the total volume of completed apartments delivered in 2022–2023 (12.23% in 2022 and 10.71% in 2023). By comparison, the long-term average since 2005 has been approximately 5% per year.

Between 2019 and 2023, Dubai maintained high delivery rates, with 2022 marking a record high of 35,204 units. The previous peak was in 2011, with 27,302 units.

Since 2018, the average growth in the number of new households in Dubai has been 36,000 units annually (a 6–7% average growth rate). In contrast, the delivery of new units — both planned and completed — has only just exceeded 30,000 units annually (+3–4% for apartments and villas) since 2022. At the same time, the average household size has been steadily declining, from 4.4 people in 2018 to 4 in 2024. This reflects a shift in demand towards smaller family units and more compact living spaces.

The key question facing the Dubai real estate sector is whether the emirate’s regulatory policy will effectively balance construction volumes with growing demographics and demand, without returning to risky megaprojects or overheating the market.

The answer to this will become clearer in 2025–2026, when housing affordability will likely become a more pressing issue. During this period, projects launched in the high-demand environment of 2022, alongside the delayed «pandemic-era» launches that were not completed in 2024, will come to market. These represent approximately 47% of all projects that were scheduled for completion last year.

Should market trends continue as they have in recent years, the number of households in Dubai will absorb the available housing stock by 2027–2028.

Developer Performance and Delays in Dubai’s Market

According to reports from the Dubai Land Department, 173 developers in the emirate have experienced delays in meeting project deadlines. EMAAR Properties leads the list with 73 delayed projects, accounting for 15% of all delays over the last two decades.

Share of Delayed Projects by Developer in Dubai

Over the last 20 years, EMAAR has failed to meet the delivery deadlines for 44.5% of its projects. The median delay across its portfolio is four months, with an average delay exceeding 14 months.

EMAAR is also frequently tasked with completing projects initiated by smaller developers that have struggled to finish their developments. This has impacted the overall dynamics of new projects, leading EMAAR to extend construction timelines to mitigate delays.

Part of these delays can be attributed to the need to adapt inherited projects to EMAAR’s infrastructure standards, including the integration of logistics, engineering networks, and design into existing complexes. Despite the extended timelines, EMAAR demonstrates a relatively low percentage of long-term delays, with only 38% of projects delayed by more than six months.

Of the ten developers in the delay «hall of shame», four (Meraas Holding, Ellington Properties, Jumeirah Golf Estates LLC, and The First Group LLC) have more than 50% of their projects delayed. Jumeirah Golf Estates LLC, in particular, has only 18% of its properties delivered on time.

Developers such as Nakheel, Azizi, DAMAC, and Jumeirah Golf Estates LLC have the longest delays, with buyers facing waits of six to eight months. The likelihood of long-term delays (over six months) is statistically higher with these developers. However, most of the developers in the delay list still meet the 12-month legal limit for delays.

Delays of four to six months may be partially offset by the liquidity of the units. Increased property values and rental rates in the area can help developers recover, as landlords in Dubai are not permitted to raise rents within an existing contract for the year. As a result, delays may allow developers to enter the market with updated rental prices, aligning with the current market conditions.

Aligning 2024 Trends with Dubai’s Master Plan

Dubai is shifting its approach to urban development, moving away from mega-projects in favour of creating a more liveable urban environment where density is higher and housing is more accessible. This strategy aligns with the «Dubai 2040» master plan, which aims to shape the city’s infrastructure and future growth. In response to this vision, the development sector is adjusting by reducing the scale of projects in favour of more compact housing solutions, while increasing the average number of units per residential development.

The primary focus of the master plan is on accessibility in all aspects. Major transport hubs and employment centres are planned to accommodate affordable housing for the city’s growing population. By 2030, Dubai expects to reach a population of 4.6 million permanent residents, with projections increasing to 5.8 million by 2040.

Currently, with a population of approximately 3.8 million, many renters in Dubai are increasingly forced to seek more affordable alternatives amid rising rents and the cost of living, while wages remain stagnant.

In the context of delays and unfinished projects, the creators of the master plan highlight that many new residential developments are being built in phases, leading to inefficient land use, urban sprawl, and decreased infrastructure effectiveness.

By identifying delays as a key challenge in the implementation of the master plan, there is hope for increased regulation of the development sector, with the government potentially taking a stronger role in addressing these issues.

Authors: Maksim Skorykh, Elena Skrebkova

Author: Maksim Skorykh